Briefs · finance
Investment Thesis Review
Stress-test the thesis behind an investment before you commit.
You walk away with
A bull/bear synthesis with the assumptions the thesis depends on.
Decidi convenes
📈 Warren Buffett🛡️ The Steelman📊 The Quant Analyst🔬 The Data Skeptic⚖️ The Risk Officer🔀 The Contrarian
Recommended level: Deep — The newest, most capable models — for when being wrong is expensive.
What the council debates
Stress-test my investment thesis. I want the bear case argued as hard as the bull case. THE INVESTMENT: [the asset/company/opportunity and the size of the position] MY THESIS: [why I think this is a good investment] TIME HORIZON: [how long I plan to hold] WHAT WOULD MAKE ME WRONG: [your current view, if any] Debate: 1. The strongest version of the bull case. 2. The strongest version of the bear case — argued by someone who thinks I am wrong. 3. The key assumptions the thesis depends on, and which are fragile. 4. What the price already assumes versus what would actually have to happen. 5. Position sizing and the downside if the thesis breaks. 6. The signals that would tell me the thesis is wrong, early. FINAL SYNTHESIS: - A balanced bull/bear summary. - The two or three assumptions the whole thesis rests on. - A statement that this is general educational analysis, not financial advice; consult a qualified professional for decisions.