Decidi for investors
Kill the deal on paper before you wire the money.
Run the bear case as hard as the bull case, so your conviction is earned — not borrowed from a founder’s deck or a single model’s optimism.
- Build the bear case in full: the strongest argument for why this returns zero, argued by someone trying to win.
- Pressure-test the founder’s numbers and TAM math against an independent model that isn’t rooting for the round.
- Surface the diligence question you’d be embarrassed to have missed at the partner meeting.
- Get a second and third opinion that genuinely disagree — instead of one chatbot agreeing with whatever you frame.
- Stress-test the thesis against base rates, comparable failures and the part of the market you can’t see from the deck.
- Rehearse the IC memo: the objection a sharp partner raises before they pass.
- The investment thesis — the strongest reason it’s wrong
- The financial model and the assumptions hidden in row 200
- Market size — TAM that survives a skeptic, not a slide
- Founder and team risk — the thing references won’t say
- The cap table, terms and downside protection
- The IC memo — the partner-meeting objection
Say your pipeline has a company with a magnetic founder, a hot sector, and a deck that answers every question before you ask it. Two funds you respect are already in. The partner meeting is Monday and your conviction is high — which is precisely the state in which expensive mistakes get wired.
You paste the deck, the metrics and your draft memo. The Skeptical Investor and the Devil’s Advocate build the full bear case — not the token risks section, but the argued case for why this returns zero — while the Data Skeptic re-derives the TAM bottom-up and audits which numbers in the deck are measured versus asserted. The CFO stress-tests the unit economics at the round’s implied valuation, and the Pre-Mortem Analyst names the diligence question you would be embarrassed to have skipped. What you carry into Monday is the strongest objection already answered — or, sometimes, a bear case strong enough to change your vote. Either outcome is worth more than borrowed conviction.
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